1950 — 20??
AGI Moment
Exploring the Future of Artificial General Intelligence
Ivory, the makerUltramarine, the madeHands after Michelangelo, 1508–1512
01Manchester · October 1950
The Mirror Test
Before we could build it, we had to dream it. Alan Turing asks the forbidden question: Can machines think?
(pause about 30 seconds)0:00
The machine answered 105621: off by exactly one hundred.
It “would deliberately introduce mistakes in a manner calculated to confuse the interrogator.”Alan Turing, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, 1950
02Hanover, New Hampshire · Summer 1956
Summer of Dreams
A group of visionaries gather at Dartmouth, confident they can simulate every aspect of human intelligence.
A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence
August 31, 1955
We propose that a 2 month, 10 man study of artificial intelligence be carried out during the summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. The study is to proceed on the basis of the conjecture that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it.
03U.S. Navy · July 1958
The Learning Machine
A machine that corrects itself every time it is wrong. The Navy expected it to become conscious.
04Nature · October 1986
The Neural Spark
How do you teach a machine to learn? You let it fail. The rebirth of neural networks via Backpropagation.
Weights from the six inputs into the first hidden unit: mirror images with opposite signs, in the ratio 1 : 2 : 4. Nobody wrote that rule down.
Task and 1,425-sweep schedule from Rumelhart, Hinton & Williams, Nature, 1986. Trained live in this page.05New York · 11 May 1997
The Fallen King
The silence of the chessboard is broken. Deep Blue forces humanity to accept that we are no longer the smartest tacticians.
Deep BlueWhite
Garry KasparovBlack
- 1e4c6
- 2d4d5
- 3Nc3dxe4
- 4Nxe4Nd7
- 5Ng5Ngf6
- 6Bd3e6
- 7N1f3h6
- 8Nxe6Qe7
- 9O-Ofxe6
- 10Bg6+Kd8
- 11Bf4b5
- 12a4Bb7
- 13Re1Nd5
- 14Bg3Kc8
- 15axb5cxb5
- 16Qd3Bc6
- 17Bf5exf5
- 18Rxe7Bxe7
- 19c4
8. Nxe6: Deep Blue gives up a knight to break open Black's king.
It weighed about 200 million positions a second.
1–0. Kasparov resigns. Deep Blue wins the match 3½–2½.
06Jeopardy! · February 2011
Parsing the Riddle
Logic is easy; language is hard. IBM Watson proves machines can untangle the messy web of human culture.
07ImageNet · 2012
Open Your Eyes
The moment computers learned to see. AlexNet ignites the Deep Learning revolution.
The hare's eye, as a computer received it: brightness from 0 to 255.
A 3 × 3 filter slides across the picture and asks the same question everywhere: is there an edge here? AlexNet's first layer learned 96 filters on its own, each 11 × 11 pixels, tuned to edges, stripes and colours.
Young Hare, Albrecht Dürer, 1502. In its eye, the reflection of a window.
AlexNet: 60 million parameters, trained for five to six days on two GPUs.
Top-5 error, ImageNet 2012
AlexNet15.3%
Next best entry26.2%
08Seoul · 10 March 2016
AlphaGo Defeats Lee Sedol
The move no human would play. AlphaGo demonstrates that machines can possess creativity and intuition.
09Google · June 2017
The Universal Translator
Attention Is All You Need. The Transformer architecture lays the foundation for understanding everything.
Theanimaldidn'tcrossthestreetbecauseitwastootiredwide
To read “it”, the model weighs every other word in the sentence at once, near or far.
The animal is tired, so “it” means the animal.The example Google used to introduce the Transformer, 2017.
Attention Is All You Need
Ashish Vaswani, Noam Shazeer, Niki Parmar, Jakob Uszkoreit, Llion Jones, Aidan N. Gomez, Łukasz Kaiser, Illia Polosukhin
Google Brain, Google Research and the University of Toronto · arXiv, 12 June 2017
10CASP14 · 30 November 2020
The Shape of Life
For fifty years, biologists could not reliably predict a protein's shape from its chain. In 2020, a machine did.
11San Francisco · 30 November 2022
The Ghost in the Shell
ChatGPT awakens. Millions of people speak to the machine, and the machine speaks back.
ChatGPT · research preview · 30 November 2022
Day 1
Each point is 10,000 people.12OpenAI · 8 September 2026
The Breaking Point
A million-dollar question about how water and air flow, announced as settled by AI agents.
13Unwritten · 20??
The AGI Moment
A silent singularity. When the creation looks back at the creator, what will it see?
“When intelligence transcends its creators, will we find ourselves in the mirror of our creation?”Kirk Lin